Gavi | 9.14. 2026

● Summary

- Gavi has released an analysis showing that next-generation tuberculosis (TB) vaccines, expected to be introduced from 2029, could save approximately 7.3 million lives between 2030 and 2050 and generate up to $135 billion in economic benefits for low- and middle-income countries.

- On the same day, Gavi published its Early Market Shaping Roadmap for Novel TB Vaccines, emphasising the need to prepare vaccine supplies and secure funding well before the vaccines become available.

Gavi has announced that next-generation tuberculosis (TB) vaccines, expected to be introduced from 2029, could save approximately 7.3 million lives and generate up to $135 billion in economic benefits for low- and middle-income countries between 2030 and 2050. These estimates are based on preliminary modelling by the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), assuming 50% efficacy against TB disease and waning immunity over a ten-year period.

In its Early Market Shaping Roadmap for Novel TB Vaccines, released on the same day, Gavi warned that governments and manufacturers must begin preparing now. Annual demand in low- and middle-income countries could average 86 million doses, with demand expected to peak during the initial rollout as countries with a high TB burden expand vaccination across multiple age groups.

Sania Nishtar, CEO of Gavi, said that new TB vaccines could become the 'next blockbuster immunisation tool', but only if they are made available in sufficient, predictable and affordable quantities to the countries bearing the greatest burden of the disease. Gavi is already working with partners to secure the necessary supply.

In 2024, an estimated 10.7 million people worldwide developed TB, and 1.2 million died from the disease. Approximately 77% of those deaths occurred in Gavi-supported countries. The BCG vaccine, which has been used for more than a century, protects infants and young children against severe forms of TB, but its effectiveness is more limited in adolescents and adults. New vaccine candidates aim to prevent pulmonary TB in adolescents and adults, with the first candidate potentially receiving regulatory approval by the end of the 2020s.

The roadmap identifies three major risks: policy risks, where insufficient evidence could limit vaccination recommendations to high-risk groups; vaccination coverage risks arising from inadequate funding; and supply risks, as uncertainty over demand may cause manufacturers to delay investment. To address these challenges, Gavi plans to pursue three objectives: ensuring sufficient, timely and affordable vaccine supplies; expanding uptake through routine vaccination and catch-up campaigns; and securing a geographically diverse pipeline of vaccine candidates.